Altior joins the list of Cheltenham heroes with victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase

01 Nov Altior joins the list of Cheltenham heroes with victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase

I cannot with clean conscience propose you bet anything in this race on my say so. In 2021, Epatante could only finish third in the Champion Hurdle, behind Honeysuckle. Marie’s Rock had recently run third in a mares’ Bolts Up Daily Grade 2 at Doncaster and Love Envoi was about to win a Wexford bumper on her first start. A year later, last year, and Honeysuckle again won the Champion Hurdle with Epatante her nearest pursuer on this occasion.

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It probably makes sense to compare a longer period pre-Cheltenham with a shorter period pre-Cheltenham with performance at the Festival itself. Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) is a means of applying a sliding scale of merit to every finishing position, and doing it in relation to the field size in which that finish was achieved. For instance, 2nd of four has less merit on this metric than 2nd of 40 – and rightly so, of course. Sizing John in 2017 was trying a longer trip and was ridden accordingly, with patience.

Arkle Chase – Shishkin to win by six lengths-plus (10/3 Skybet)

AL AASY is not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. Al Qareem is a gritty front runner and showed plenty of guts to win this last year. He was no match for Al Aasy last time but this track and ground brings out the best in him. As with the handicap hurdles, it’s been hard work for the girls. Only 19 have shown up but, while they have failed to win, they have recorded an impressive five placed efforts (26.32% place rate vs 18.18% for the boys). But it is worth further squinting at the data, because it relates that those aged five or six notched 27 of the 39 wins (69%) from just 49% of the runners.

• All trades and bets were streamed live on JuiceStorm TV which was was watched by 124,209 traders in 2022.
• Horses aged five to nine won 49 of the 53 open Cheltenham Festival Grade 1’s in the last decade.
• Again, little of note here except that those novices aged nine or more running in Grade 1 novice races at the Festival have done poorly.
• Back this season as an older, stronger horse he’s won two of three chases, both ungraded.
• Cause of Causes, half brother to 2003 Epsom Derby winner Kris Kin, goes off as the 3-1 favourite, Last Samurai follows him in the betting at 7-2.

The nine attributes that make City of Troy so special

RELIEF RALLY looks the one to beat after a hugely promising effort when second at Newbury a fortnight ago. That was even more commendable because it was her first start since May. Noisy Jazz is going the right way and could give the selection a race if getting cover early. In a deep contest, the likes of La Pasionaira, Queen Of Soldiers and Treasure are all capable of getting involved at generous prices. Nevertheless, Messrs. Hobbs and Meade are 0 from 30, three places, which is hard to overlook.

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So you can know exactly what people are talking about, you should make sure to learn some of the following lingo. The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that’s run over 4m1f. Then down at Lingfield the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby. We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle. AU FLEURON holds an each-way squeak in what is a typically tough handicap hurdle to conclude the Cheltenham Festival.

Green Team

The eight-year-old’s owner, Patricia Pugh, is curator at the Horseracing Museum in Newmarket but in Altior, the Latin for higher, she has a priceless artefact, the star exhibit, a Champion who can rule this division for a couple of years yet. “The foot (Monday’s infection) was nothing,” said a beaming Henderson. “It was of no consequence and when he wasn’t winning round the last bend I wasn’t about to start using that as an excuse. It has been a tough year (with his wind operation) and he’s been missing out but he’s very good, he’s just got gears.

Relegate makes it nine Champion Bumper wins for Willie Mullins

• A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let’s posit that one.
• If you still think taking 7/2 is acceptable when you can get 4/1, you’re doing it wrong.
• He has some impressive performances to his name, most of them on genuine good ground, but I can’t quite shake that County clunk from my memory banks.
• Before being sidelined last autumn, he was in the saddle when Envoi Allen stretched his unbeaten record to nine races in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle.
• No other trainer has more than two novice G1 wins in the past decade, excluding as we are the Bumper and Triumph Hurdle.
• Selected games, wagering requirement and expiry dates apply.
• Le Breuil looked very impressive on latest start, with the form being sound.

If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez’ Query Tool. ‘4’ signifies an early front runner, ‘3’ a prominent racer early, ‘2’ a midfield runner, and ‘1’ a hold up type. This particular race was won by the unexposed, and still unbeaten – now in three races – Hickory, who was a class above his rivals. As the result shows, he was good enough to travel on the heels of the speed, while the placed horses came from far back, even though typically this course and distance favours front-runners (see the green blob above the pace map).

If Altior wins the Queen Mother

Racing against the far rail from a draw in stall one, David Egan got bumped and bored when attempting to get through on the run to the final furlong, just as Raasel swept to the front down the outside. A neck separated the pair at the winning post, with Existent back in fourth and Equilateral, who also had a hard-luck story to tell, fnishing sixth. Roger Varian’s sprinter was unlucky not to take the spoils at Sandown, enduring a troubled passaged over the minimum trip. Raasel was in front that day but the selection has a fine chance of turning the tables. I’ve been quietly backing Tiger Roll all winter to win the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.

Monday 22 April’s Horse Racing Results

• Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins each have nine, and the next best of Jonjo O’Neill, with four.
• If that’s the unpromising news, her most recent effort – when a staying on third to Royal Kahala at Leopardstown – was definitely her season best and she comes here perhaps sitting on a big one, as they say.
• Back Doddiethegreat at 7/1 with as many places as you can find (six generally, Skybet eight but a point shorter as I write).
• In 2018, Native River won from Might Bite, the pair engaging in a ding-dong skirmish from flag fall; in theory, both should have wilted and been passed.
• These figures are skewed inasmuch as the last five years have seen a big increase in the number of Irish horses travelling across.
• Betfair has a similar price commitment to Paddy Power in terms of odds, and they also put their money where their mouth is in terms of bonuses and other promos for racing fans.

Although she hasn’t been at her best this season, she was a 9 ½ length runner-up to Lossiemouth in the International Hurdle here (2m 1f) last time. We know she seems to thrive at the Festival and the fitting of first-time cheekpieces could improve her performance against Lossiemouth. Lossiemouth’s nearest market rival, stablemate Ashroe Diamond, boasts an impressive record of five wins from six starts against her own sex. If the favourite falters due to stamina, Ashroe Diamond could capitalize, although the fitting of a first-time hood for a return to 2m 4f would be a slight concern.

Presenting Percy wins by several lengths

This includes the Kiplingcotes Derby – the oldest horse race that we can still enjoy today – which was first run in 1519. A complete revelation since turning to point to points, ROCKY’S HOWYA beat Chatham Street Lad by 45 lengths last time out. He has won by a combined 122 lengths in his 5 point to point starts and if the form holds up here, he will be very hard to beat and it’s hard to see him out of the frame.

If you’re John Butler or Mick Appleby – with the greatest respect to those genuinely fine exponents of their craft – you don’t have the luxury of a conveyor belt of million-pound yearlings lolloping into your barn annually. He has progressed all season, and even though he may have put in his poorest performance so far, he clearly has the profile to continue stepping up in distance on route to a very promising chasing career. He has a huge career ahead of him and the question now is, does he go chasing, or does he remain over hurdles with a route towards the 2022 Champion hurdle.

Breeders’ Cup 2024 at Del Mar: a look at Aidan O’Brien’s team on Saturday night

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Mitbaahy opened his campaign with a close second at Nottingham at the start of May before going one better against three opponents for a valuable conditions stakes over five furlongs at Hamilton Park the following month. In the Coral Cup, Fixe Le Kap can run a big race at a big price. He has had problems this season but is back in top form at home and has the soft ground that he relishes. I have spoken to Daryl Jacob and he is going to ride a patient race, sneaking into contention, and he is one of the best in the weighing room at that. You could not wish to meet a nicer guy than Daryl, and there is nobody better at holding up a horse, so I have given him his riding instructions and told him to creep into the race. The versatility of PRESENTING PERCY is rare in a staying chaser and that quality suggests he is a cut above the average.

• Telmesomethinggirl, who returned to hurdling this season after a stint over fences, looked rusty on her seasonal return at Leopardstown but was a lot better when a 1¼ length 2nd of four to Zarak The Brave at Naas last time.
• Second feature from Steve analysing handicaps and ratings following his insight into his work as a professional backer.
• In this case, 2nd of four beats two horses and loses to one horse, so has a PRB score of 67% (or 0.67) for beating two out of three of its rivals.
• “I wouldn’t complain at Alexis (Pouchin); I’m happy with the ride, but he started galloping the last 200 metres when he had the gap.
• MEETINGOFTHEWATERS is lightly raced and has a beautiful light weight.
• That maiden score, like his flat maiden win, was on good ground and, with the drying forecast, conditions look to be in his corner.
• If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible.
• Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge.
• It’s such a thrilling sport and at its best when you get the chance to see the horses close up in the flesh.

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It’s worth recalling that she was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April, and it’s typical of Lucinda Russell’s horses to only show their very best form in the spring. O’Connor rides Corbett’s Cross, who was a big talking horse before running out here last year, and he was brought down in his prep race for this when the rider was given his traditional ‘feeler’ at Fairyhouse. He has a chance, for sure, but is of no great interest at around 2/1 given his imperfect preparation.

• The bookmakers early mark up on the races of interest is too far tilted in their favour.
• DOUVAN Suffered serious injury in this race a year ago and not run since; hugely talented but remains to be seen if he can recover that level of form.
• But four, out of 54, is not a percentage on which to hang one’s wagering hat.
• The jockey with the most winners in each championship will take the title.
• The last ten years (from 2013 onwards) have seen Irish runners dominate these events more and more.
• Plus we have Uttoxeter  who are subject to a third inspection.
• Mick Fitzgerald knows the time of day at Nicky Henderson’s yard and describes Altior as a rocket who would win the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and probably the Champions League if they let him enter it.
• This doesn’t just work on all-weather or on turning tracks, by the way.
• There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park.

The main danger is last term’s scorer Billaway, who relishes this stamina test. He looks sure to be finishing best of all and will be many punters’ place option. Depending on your selections, you can place a variety of bet types, including singles and multiples. You can add selections straight from a Bet Builder match centre, making it simpler and quicker to place bets backed by data. CommissionYou’ll need to take into account commission paid to Betfair ranging from 2 – 5% depending on how much you bet with them.

Queen Mother Champion Chase – Chacun Pour Soi to win by four lengths-plus (4/1 Skybet)

Indefatigable looks like getting her optimal conditions for the first time in a while and may be over-priced for hail mary each way players. Mrs Milner, like Heaven Help Us, was a handicap hurdle winner at last year’s Festival, her score coming in the three mile Pertemps Final. This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career. Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over. In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices. They are headed by inmates of the unofficial Prestbury Cup team captains Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and, more pertinently, their A and B players, Constitution Hill and Jonbon (NJH) and Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit (WPM).

Runners and race-by-race tips for Goodwood on Friday

Cause of Causes, half brother to 2003 Epsom Derby winner Kris Kin, goes off as the 3-1 favourite, Last Samurai follows him in the betting at 7-2. Nube Negra starts as favourite in the penultimate race of the day. This is never a race to be confident of solving as there is always so much untapped talent waiting to appear. Acey Milan has plenty of experience and has shown smart speed for a bumper horse. The Irish have won six to Great britain’s four in the past 10 years. Blackbow and Felix Desy look their principal hopes this time around.

Racing against hardened, more experienced chasers he battled all the way to the line to get within 3 1/2 lengths of the Grade 1-winning Mullins chaser Capodanno and last year’s Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker. Back down to novice company he should go well but wearing headgear is a big no no in the Brown Advisory and I don’t like that Nicholls is reaching for the first time cheekpieces here. An Ayr maiden winner from six attempts as a juvenile, the Roger Varian-trained son of Profitable has taken a step forward on each of his four starts this season.